Appalachian Basin

BP’s Energy Outlook 2030 Highlights America’s Shale Resources

Last week, BP released their third annual Energy Outlook 2030 report, based on up-to-date analysis, and taking into account developments of the past year.

Last year’s outlook led the way in showing how North America is likely to become self-sufficient in energy. This year’s edition examines more closely the development of shale gas and tight oil – the phenomenon driving America’s energy revival – and highlights its impact on our global energy future.

Key Points of the BP analysis:

  • Oil  is expected to be the slowest growing of the major fuels to 2030, with demand growing at an average of just 0.8% a year. Nonetheless, this will still result in demand for oil and other liquid fuels being 16 million barrels a day higher in 2030 than 2011. All the net demand growth will come from outside the OECD – demand growth from China, India and the Middle East will together account for almost all of net demand growth.
  • Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing of the fossil fuels – with demand rising at an average of 2% a year. Non-OECD countries will generate 76% of demand growth. Power generation and industry account for the largest increments to demand by sector. LNG production is expected to grow more than twice as fast as gas consumption, at an average of 4.3% a year and accounting for 27% of the growth in gas supply to 2030.
  • Shale gas supplies are expected to meet 37 percent of the growth in gas demand and account for 16 percent of world gas and 53 percent of U.S. gas production by 2030
  • In 2030 North America is still expected to account for 73 percent of world shale gas production.

In an column in this morning’s Warren Tribune on the study, one key factor was highlighted – energy produced by natural gas will continue to be the fastest growing of all the fossil fuels (with demand rising at an average of 2 percent a year for the next 17 years), and the United States will be leading in its production.

While we expect other regions will adapt over time to develop their resources, by 2030 we expect North America still to dominate production of these resources. –  Christof Rühl, BP Group Chief Economist (Release, 1/16/12)

Ohio plays a key role in the increase in production, a fact recognized by the company.

BP is well-known throughout Ohio. In fact, through its heritage companies of Standard Oil of Ohio (SOHIO) and Amoco, BP’s roots in the state date back to 1870.

Back in March of 2012, BP announced that they would be joining the “Shale Revolution” in coming back to Ohio through leasing some 48,000 acres in the Utica formation in the eastern part of the state.  BP also operates the BP-Husky refinery near Toledo,  a joint venture with Husky, LLC. BP heritage companies have also been active in the upstream business throughout its history in the state of Ohio.

We are very encouraged by what we have seen of the Utica-Point Pleasant formation. Our focus in 2012 will be to better understand the geology and devise a plan to safely develop the resource. BP is committed to hiring and purchasing locally whenever possible, and we anticipate having a positive impact on the region while providing a new source of energy for America. – Tim Harrington, regional president for BP’s North America Gas (BP Release, 3-27-12)

While BP has not begun any exploration operations in Ohio yet, their CEO Bob Dudley voiced their interest last summer during a speaking engagement in Cleveland.

We’ve got to do the exploring and unlock it. If BP finds natural gas liquids in the shale, as expected, the number of jobs will really begin to take off, certainly in the thousands. Not just drilling jobs. Jobs in finance, accounting, leasing. – Bob Dudley, CEO BP (BP CEO says the shale gas revolution is real, especially for Ohio, 7-13-12)

BP’s plan is to start with 10 exploratory wells beginning in April in Trumbull County. BP’s development adds to production already in place here in Ohio such as the Gulfport, Consol and Chesapeake wells. Ohio finds itself as one of only a handful of states with access to the right geology for development of crude oil and natural gas reserves – a gift that is reshaping our energy future, and our economy.

In September of 2011, Kleinhenz and Associates released their Economic Impact Study, conducted for the  (OOGEEP) that projected the oil and gas industry’s creation and support of over 204,000 jobs through 2015 as a result of it’s development of the Utica-Point Pleasant formation. A recent report conducted by IHS-CERA on behalf of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce echoes the OOGEEP study, citing the  38,000 jobs  that are already supported by the industry  in the past year as a result of this development.

BP joins a multitude of producers, midstream, and downstream companies that will play a major role in creating and supporting jobs all across Ohio for the foreseeable future.

The U.S. will not be increasingly dependent on energy imports, with energy set to reinvigorate its economy. – Bob Dudley (BP looks to the future, 1/22/12)

As we continue to emerge as a leader in domestic energy production, Ohio is poised to contribute greatly to our future energy security.

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