Marcellus Shale

Strange Marcellus Shale Rumblings at 2,000 Feet

The New York Times floated something of trial balloon from the Cuomo administration last week, publishing a piece suggesting the governor may soon release the details of a plan that would allow some of the state’s landowners the opportunity to finally produce their minerals, while leaving other folks out.

Needless to say, it got a lot of attention – with some supporters seeing it as evidence that New York may be finally ready to proceed with Marcellus development. Others, of course, had a very different take – many residing in counties that, for whatever reason, didn’t make Cuomo’s cut (actually the DEC’s cut).

The Times article and remarks of Gov. Cuomo made on Fred Dicker’s radio show (30:35) last week have generated lots of comments and raised more than their fair share of questions. The two principal elements of the supposed deal, on which Cuomo was nothing less than officially equivocal in the Dicker interview, are 1) the restriction of natural gas development to certain geographies and 2) geography aside, development only made available to communities that “want” it.  Both raise troubling issues for industry and landowners, not to mention inevitable political difficulties for the governor himself — although it’s also possible, I suppose, it could also be the best thing since Lee Iacocca came up with the Mustang. Let’s consider the issues.

How Deep Is Your Love for Marcellus Shale?

The Times royally confused matters with the second and third paragraphs of the article:

The plan, described by a senior official at the State Department of Environmental Conservation and others with knowledge of the administration’s strategy, would limit drilling to the deepest areas of the Marcellus Shale rock formation in an effort to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination.

Even within that southwest New York region — primarily Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Steuben and Tioga Counties — drilling would be permitted only in towns that agree to it and would be banned in Catskill Park, aquifers and nationally designated historic districts.

While the report later said the plan was to restrict development to areas where the Marcellus is at least 2,000 feet deep, that wasn’t mentioned until the 14th paragraph. Depth aside, counties missing from the list included Cortland, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan and Tompkins, all of which are underlain by the Marcellus Shale and many, if not all, of which have leases in place.  Everyone in those counties is now left to wonder: “What happened to us?”

Nonetheless, it’s obvious the idea of restricting development based on Marcellus Shale depth has some appeal at least, although it’s still far more political than scientific.  It is, after all, tied to something tangible, in contrast to “home rule” votes or some arbitrary selection of counties such as implied by the article.  The Times says:
State regulators believe that by limiting drilling to areas where the Marcellus Shale is at least 2,000 feet deep, risks of contaminating the water supply with toxic chemicals will be reduced. Regulators would require drillers to maintain a 1,000-foot buffer between water sources and the top of the shale formation.
Given that water tables seldom extend below 1,000 feet in the region, as the following slide from a USGS presentation illustrates, there is little likelihood the 1,000 feet buffer, which is already in the draft Supplemental Generic Environmental Impact Statement in several places, will have any practical impact.  That is to say, it won’t require any additional depth beyond the 2,000 feet (as it would if the water table extended to 1,500 feet depth for example).  More importantly, the chart also illustrates hydraulic fracturing occurs much lower, typically 5,000 to 9,000 feet.  This is because the shallower Marcellus Shale  doesn’t yield economically recoverable natural gas, meaning there’s no reason, other than politics, to establish a 2,000 feet depth requirement.  Science and the market will impose a much greater buffer between any fracturing and the water table.

Water Table Depth Compared to Fracturing Depths

So then: since the depth issue is a largely irrelevant one from a practical standpoint, how is it this standard has become part of the discussion?   There is no clear answer, but it could all just be a distraction from what would be a dramatic change in policy — giving towns the right to say yes or no to state-permitted energy development within its boundaries. It could be nothing more than a shallow attempt to appease anti-gas special interests.  Another possibility is the Times is correct and there will be a conversion of the depth requirement to a county by county rule for ease of administration, which would play into the hands of New York City, the Park Foundation and the NRDC gang, all of which would dearly love to keep development away from their own properties in the Catskills and Finger Lakes.  Finally, the Times could just have it all wrong.  It certainly wouldn’t be the first time.

Which is it?  Well, one suspects it’s a combination of all these possibilities and some people are trying to lead Governor Cuomo down the primrose lane.  Regardless, we know the depth requirement is not based on any real need but, rather, on the need to address the politics of what should be a matter of science and the market alone.  This interjection of government into both has no justification and can only lead to problems.  Unfortunately, this is the least harmful of what the Times reports.

Location by Applause?

Attorney Daniel Leary, writing on this blog, coined the phrase “zoning by applause” and a variation of this – location by applause – seems to be what the Martens crew at DEC is floating as a possible way to split the baby on natural gas development.  If true, this is a complete sellout of landowners in towns where politically correct local officials are saying “no” without regard to law, property rights and science.

Worse, the article suggests it isn’t merely saying “no” that leads to a stripping away of those rights, but merely a failure to say “yes.”  This is nothing less than astounding.  We have articulated numerous times, on these pages, the reasons just saying “no” are both unworkable and just plain wrong.  But, the DEC people are, according to the Times, saying a landowner’s property rights are actually dependent on community leaders saying “yes.”

Is there any precedent for such an absurd policy with regard to any other land use or natural resources development issue?  How is this reconcilable with a state policy encouraging development of resources based on science?  How does this preserve property rights when there is, effectively, a presumption natural gas development shouldn’t take place until local officials say they want it?  It turns every principal of law on its head and throws science completely to the wind by requiring local officials to act in this manner.  But, the law of land use doesn’t work that way. Or, at least, it shouldn’t.

Restrictions on development are a derogation of the common law and, therefore, must be strictly construed to the least possible restriction of rights that fits the regulatory need; justification for the restriction must be based on science.  The proposal coming from the DEC, nevertheless, says you have no rights until local officials first give them to you and those town politicos “don’t need no stinkin’ badges” or reasons for saying either “yes” or “no.”  This is, to put it delicately, a bastardization of the law.  It completely separates science from the decision-making and makes it 100% political, with landowners’ rights subject to the whim of elected officials.  This is America?

The Times article includes the following map:

Drillable Areas in NY under Cuomo's Location by Applause Proposal

Developable Areas in NY under Cuomo’s Location by Applause Proposal

Notice there is only one area with a significant number of contiguous communities that have proactively said they want Marcellus development.  Obviously, others will follow and a campaign is underway to secure as many as possible.  But, is it fair to ask communities that have stood firm against the Slottje/Park Foundation assault to now take an extra step to put themselves on the line politically when they know there may well be powerful constituencies within their communities who are opposed?  Why should they have to take a bath when it’s all supposed to be based on the science anyway?  Why should they put themselves on the line when the state policy is already forthrightly stated as to develop the resources.

Are mineral rights in those communities where there is plenty of natural gas to be trampled because their local officials faced pressure from small lot owners in areas of their towns without natural gas and they were reluctant to antagonize them?  It seems this proposal would do just that.  If your property is not in a community where the overwhelming majority favors natural gas development, your rights are shot to smithereens.  This is expressly unfair and a complete sellout to the interests of anti-development forces in areas such as the Finger Lakes and the Catskills where well-funded groups, such as the NRDC, with connections to Martens and the DEC advisory committee, seek to keep development at a distance.

Is Someone Shooting Cuomo in the Foot?

Certainly, the sudden change of opinion by some organizations, suggests a deal was made by DEC with certain parties, or was it?  Here’s what the Times quotes Robert Moore, Executive Director of Environmental Advocates of New York and member of the state committee supposedly advising on the development of regulations, as saying:

“We recognize that gas is going to be part of our energy mix and it’s preferable to other types of fuels that are out there,” said Rob Moore, executive director of Environmental Advocates of New York. “So it’s not really an option to say ‘no way’ to natural gas. But we’re not in a rush to see this resource extracted in New York.”

Mr. Moore called the Cuomo plan, which is being developed by the Department of Environmental Conservation, an “interesting idea.”

“I’d say it’s encouraging that D.E.C. continues to look at these issues very thoroughly and carefully, but there are a lot of questions about how this would roll out,” he said. “Can communities that want to opt in handle it? Is there enough emergency response in the region to handle well explosions? Spill response?”

Less than six months ago Moore was saying this:

How did Moore go from saying “The state simply isn’t prepared now” (3:13) to giving a half-hearted endorsement of natural gas in the Times?  Well, we don’t know because he backed away faster than I did the first time I ran into a rattlesnake while land surveying many years ago.  Here’s what he said two days later:
In response to the June 13th story, “Cuomo Proposal Would Restrict Gas Drilling to a Struggling Area,” I’m writing to clarify Environmental Advocates of New York’s position regarding industrial gas drilling by means of fracking.
Environmental Advocates has consistently said New York State is unprepared to provide safe oversight of high volume hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking.” Nothing has been presented to change our minds about that, certainly not the recent story about restricting drilling to a portion of the state. We firmly believe New York is not ready to move forward with fracking— statewide or in a limited number of counties.
Appeasing anti-growth interests is not so easy, is it?  See other examples here, here, here and here.  Yet, there was that initial good word, wasn’t there?  One has to suppose Moore got reined in by others but, clearly, the push was on to put out a proposal that threaded the political needle, one that kept development away from the Finger Lakes and Catskills.  Unfortunately, threading a needle with a hang noose rope is a bit more difficult.
Politically, this trial ballon, if accepted by the Governor — and ones suspects he’s far too smart to  — would create a quagmire.  The Park Foundation and their shared employees at CEDC, NRDC and Catskill Mountainkeeper would continue their campaign to stop natural gas development everywhere at the local level – just as soon as they secure prohibitions in the fringe areas where development enjoys tacit, as opposed to full-throated, support.  They would target communities where key infrastructure is planned or one town in a logical geographic unit that would make it impossible to develop resources in a straight-forward way.
No natural gas company is going to buy into that kind of uncertainty – and they know that. A compressor station battle 75 miles away in a community without natural gas to develop, but which is essential to creating infrastructure capacity all along the way of a major pipeline, can kill development altogether.  No one will ever submit themselves to such unbridled discretion at the local level.  The inevitable result of a deal that allows activists to essentially negate state policy willy-nilly is “dead on arrival.”  And, if passed, natural gas development in New York is also dead — and with it, the good will Governor Cuomo has worked so hard to develop over the past 18 months.

 

19 Comments
  • Question Man from TurthVille
    Posted at 12:24h, 19 June Reply

    Tom…the man who always has answers to our questions.

    Hang in there Tom.

    TruthVille.

  • Dave
    Posted at 13:20h, 19 June Reply

    Tom,
    You have correctly identified the issues. I agree that the governor would place himself in a difficult spot with this plan. Lets hope he sees it for what it is. Our state has placed itself in a convuluted mess with this ban. The moratorium gave the anti crowd all the time it needed to twist the truth and influence the public’s perceptions. Now our governor is blinking, he needs to steel himself and move forward, despite all the nasty things that will be thrown at him by the Park Foundation. I will regain respect for him if he does so. Oh and state Rep. Barbara Lifton- quit smirking (lol).
    Dave

  • Henry Kramer
    Posted at 20:07h, 19 June Reply

    This may be one of Cuomo’s first major political mistakes. It will satisfy no one. The industry may stay out because the local option rules make all development subject to local politics. Landowners in places excluded will not be happy. You simply cannot appease committed environmentalists. When you straddle both sides of an issue, you risk being torn apart.

    What the governor forgets is PA had home rule for oil and gas. It did not work there and they repealed it. We need to learn from that.

  • Trudy
    Posted at 21:37h, 19 June Reply

    Tom,

    When I first heard of the Governor’s plan I thought it seemed like a good idea and we would finally move forward with drilling. But after reading your article I see that there could be a lot of problems (some of which may not even be considered yet.) Thanks for your “in depth” article.

    Trudy

  • Bill Ferullo
    Posted at 22:35h, 19 June Reply

    Breaking News!! Rochester, New York’s third largest city, just voted 8-0 for a moratorium on fracking!

    • Tom Shepstone
      Posted at 22:45h, 19 June Reply

      I hear they banned banana plantations, pineapple farms and orange groves, too. Is that correct?

      • vic
        Posted at 23:00h, 19 June Reply

        Who Cares what Rochester banned…. other then the voters when they find out they voted away job growth and a large tax base…. and why…. over BS fear mongering that will cost them their jobs on the board, and embarresment as towns in NY that make billions that chose to move forward with progress, jobs and developement that supports a nation and a community

      • Henry James
        Posted at 07:47h, 20 June Reply

        Tom.

        The petition by plaintiff has been *denied* in Cooperstown Holstein decision.

        So much for that letter or memorandum you wrote about.

        Ho Hum…

        When are you going to publish your sonnets about geneology and your recipes for waffles?

        Henry James.

        • Tom Shepstone
          Posted at 08:22h, 20 June Reply

          It ain’t over till it’s over so don’t start crowing yet, Henry.

      • Tom Frost
        Posted at 09:43h, 20 June Reply

        Who cares what Rochester did (I mean, outside of the fact that when orange groves get banned, Cabot isn’t the reason). More relevent here is that Cuomo’s trial balloon, a key part of which was to see if he could help New York City thoroughly screw Delaware County landowners for a second time in only several generations, was floated with help not only from the New York Times but also from JLCNY. Several days into the trial-balloon period, I went to Afton and witnessed JLCNY try to get the town board there to screw (by conspicuous omission of mention in its proposed resolution) JLCNY’s own only-a-few-miles-southeast-of-there faction by promising to become a complete puppet of DEC. Happily, the presence of some of us “antis” standing there staring that town board down seemed to cause your buddy JLCNY’s Orwellian resolution to get tabled.

        All while you were waiting with your finger to the wind for a little while before deciding how to write your above monologue, eh, Mr. Shepstone?

    • Bryant La Tourette
      Posted at 01:35h, 20 June Reply

      Bill Rochester like so many other towns that have bans and moratoriums has no NG worth extracting. Now that’s out of the way maybe they can focus on those 30 brown fields that need cleaning up.
      Another target the misfits of misinformation will be attacking in Rochester is that nasty URBAN SPRAWL issue. Why should people have the right to own houses and take up green space? When they can live in concrete prisons with nice window dressing.
      I retrieved this information from one of Rochesters fear factor sites.
      http://rochesterenvironment.com/rochester_issues.htm

      • Bill Ferullo
        Posted at 14:04h, 20 June Reply

        Aren’t they in the Utica shale region ??????

      • Bill Ferullo
        Posted at 14:05h, 20 June Reply

        Always adding BS to truth ……..must be all that Nat. Gas coming out !!!!

        • Bryant La Tourette
          Posted at 22:51h, 21 June Reply

          Bill,
          NG is not your issue anymore. Please answer the questions. What are you going to do about that nasty human urban sprawl issue? How about your brown fields?

  • Scott Cline
    Posted at 20:39h, 20 June Reply

    This is nothing new.

    The 2009 proposed SGEIS as well as the revised draft SGEIS of July 2011 already called for no high volume fracture stimulation at depths less than 2000 feet deep or lalternatively ess than 1o00 feet below the deepenst USDW. See section 7.1.6, page 7-61

    As a practical matter because of the need for an overpressured reservoir, operators are not going to be interested at depths less than 3,000 at a minimum.

  • vic
    Posted at 10:06h, 22 June Reply

    Scott as always….well informed and without a Chip on his shoulder

  • SONDRA BAUERNFEIND
    Posted at 06:28h, 25 June Reply

    One way to destroy a nation is to deny the people a way to earn a living wage. History is a wonderful accounting of the human element …..both triumphs and failures. It seems that the term ” fracking ” has become the rallying cry of those who are against using the gift of natural mineral resources to free America from reliance on foreign , and in most cases, hostile nations.
    Before going into any battle, it is always wise and necessary to know the opponent. What are the connections of the groups opposed to the development of natural gas and how does each person fit into the puzzle ? When someone controls the purse strings, that someone controls the people who rely on the financial outcome. Perhaps the real opposition boils down to the position of power. A person beholden to someone for their income is often easy to control. Elected officials want to stay in office so they analyze the voters and act accordingly.
    The public must be educated as to the benefits of the development of natural gas. The public schools have been promoting the opposite. If you read the teachers’ union publications you will understand that we are paying our tax money to promote ” social justice ” which does not educate … it indoctrinates. There is a definte difference.
    The oppostion is better organized, better funded, more vocal…. but truth overcomes all of these . Reach out to the people with the facts. This is a campaign to win and free America from dependence on foreign elements. This is a Constitutional issue and the right of private ownership is guaranteed. Those who seek to ban the development of private land are in violation of the Constitution…… due process and taking without just compensation.

  • Paul Silvan
    Posted at 09:49h, 25 June Reply

    Perhaps the strategy here by the Cuomo administration has nothing to do with its opinion about statewide regulation, pre-emption or home rule. Perhaps the purpose of the Cuomo trial balloon is to delay drilling upstate until declining local economies and shifting demographics compel the objecting municipal officials to retreat from a permanent ban. Passive Agressive Politics? A careful inspection of your map of municipal actions regarding Marcellus shale shows that the lion’s share of restrictions are only temporary and will expire and that the permanent bans concentrate in areas where the gas may be marginally commercial. If liguid propane and other less politically sensitive processes begin to flourish and if the market for dry gas improves, the moratoria may become irrelevant. Question to EID: if dry gas needs very little processing to put in the pipeline, unlike oil, then when oil drops in price does dry gas become more valuable or less valuable because the expense to produce, process and market is proportionately lower than oil?

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