It’s back to the basics at the International Energy Agency (IEA). After several years of relying on speculative models that factored in nascent policy proposals and predicted peak fossil fuel consumption by 2029, the intergovernmental organization has returned to tried and tested models that project growing demand for oil and gas through at least 2050.

As Bloomberg reports:

“The annual report being prepared by International Energy Agency, which represents the views of the world’s richest nations, shows the alternative — decades more of robust fossil-fuel use, with oil and gas demand growing over the next 25 years — isn’t just possible but probable.”

While the IEA’s full 2025 World Energy Outlook (WEO) isn’t expected until October, it’s clear that conventional energy sources like oil and gas are here for decades to stay. Let’s take a look at what happened with the models and what we can expect from the WEO once it is published next month.

Promises versus Practicality

As EID has previously discussed, IEA began shifting away from its longstanding mission to promote energy security in 2020.

Under immense pressure from activists, IEA dropped its longstanding “current policies scenario” (CPS) model, instead publishing scenarios that based oil and natural gas demand projections on early-stage climate policy proposals and net-zero goals. The Guardian reported on the shift in 2021, quoting IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol:

“If governments are serious about the climate crisis, there can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal, from now – from this year.” [emphasis added]

One of the simulations used by the IEA was the “Stated Policies Scenario”, which accounted for not only “existing policies and measures but also those that are under development.”

The other was the “Announced Pledges Scenario”, which included “all recent major national announcements as of the end of August 2024, both 2030 targets and longer-term net zero or carbon neutrality pledges, regardless of whether these announcements have been anchored in legislation or in updated Nationally Determined Contributions.”

Graphic source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2024

The problem with these scenarios is that they’re hypotheticals – and a range of institutions, from government to banks – rely on IEA’s oil and natural gas demand outlook to guide the policy and investment decisions that determine energy security. Stakeholders ranging from the White House, to members of Congress, to energy experts in developing countries called on the IEA to reinstate its “business as usual” scenario.

It appears IEA has gotten the message. Bloomberg reported:

“This year, the IEA is again publishing its “Current Policy Scenario” — in part due to pressure from the Trump administration — showing that neither oil nor gas demand would peak this decade, contrary to the previous assumption, according to a half a dozen people who have reviewed a draft of the report.” [emphasis added]

Our Relentless Appetite for Energy

The reality is that energy demand is skyrocketing amidst the proliferation of artificial intelligence and rapid electrification—a trend that is likely to continue for some time.

The draft 2025 WEO shows oil and gas use increasing until 2050, with oil likely to still be the largest single fuel in the middle of the century.

While the adoption of alternate sources of energy like nuclear and renewables will increase, oil consumption will likely grow to 114 million barrels per day by 2050 – a far cry from the 93 million barrels per day projected under last year’s hypothetical scenario.

Bottom line: The IEA is going back to the basics and returning to its core mission of providing objective analysis and data on energy. Oil and natural gas are here to stay, and it’s time for a realistic conversation about their role in the global energy landscape.