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New York’s Democrats Rethink Gas Ban Amidst Affordability Concerns

This week, 19 New York State Assembly Democrats urged Governor Kathy Hochul to delay an aggressive building electrification mandate, citing worries about affordability and energy reliability.

The all-electric building mandate— if it remains in place— will ban gas use for most new structures starting Dec. 31, 2025; a quick turnaround for a state already struggling to meet its overzealous climate goals.

A majority of the signers were among those who helped pass the state budget bill in 2023, which enshrined the gas ban into law. But the latest action is a complete 180, as they wake up to the dangers the ban poses to NY consumers and economy.  As Assemblywoman Carrie Woerner said:

“I absolutely wish it [the building electrification mandate] had never been put into the budget. We had heard from the utility companies that the grid capacity just isn’t there. The amount of increased demand this move to electrification is producing is something the grid is not positioned yet to handle.”

New York was the first state to pass a ban on natural gas hookups in most new construction, following the example of Democrat-led cities such as San Francisco and New York City, which banned gas hookups in new buildings in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

The gas ban is part of the Empire state’s ambitious Clean Energy Standard, which aims to create a zero-emission electric grid by 2040. The letter comes amidst announcements that the state is not on track to meet its renewable electricity targets and Governor Hochul changes her tune to emphasize consumer affordability concerns.

Affordability and Reliability Concerns

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)— New York’s grid operator— has been warning about reliability issues for years. Just a few weeks ago the operator called out increased demand and generation retirements as playing a key role in evolving challenges with reliability. Furthermore, NYISO’s report highlights that the state’s energy policies must be reworked to prioritize affordability and reliability for their consumers. Shutting out low-emitting, abundant resources like natural gas will only exacerbate these issues more.

Single-family homes and buildings under seven stories would be the first targets of the ban, with large buildings following soon after. These new all-electric buildings would be significantly more expensive to build than gas-powered ones, with New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) estimating that total retrofit costs would range from $17,400 to $31,700 including an air source heat pump, water heater, cooktop range, and more.

Additionally, annual energy bills would increase by between $450 to $700 for single-family homes that switch to electrification.

Disconnect in the Courts

Meanwhile, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld a Biden-era rule setting stringent standards for gas-powered commercial water heaters and consumer furnaces: effectively banning the sale of non-condensing natural gas furnaces.

The decision will impose an incredible cost-burdens on consumers, which will have disastrous effects heading into an early Winter cold.

 The American Gas Association, American Public Gas Association and National Propane Gas Association have already rebuked this ruling, pointing out its sweeping consequences:

“The U.S. Department of Energy data shows that 30 percent of senior-only households, 26 percent of low-income households and 27 percent of small business consumers will face higher costs as a result of the new regulation. For households with mobile home gas furnaces, 39 percent of consumers would be negatively affected by the proposed standard under DOE’s likely significantly underreported analysis.”

While Democrats in New York are realizing that abandoning natural gas during a period of rising costs is a bad idea, this ruling demonstrates the lasting impacts of misguided policy.

Bottom Line: Lawmakers are hearing consumers loud and clear – access to affordable and reliable energy resources must be prioritized before overly ambitious climate mandates. The letter sent to Gov. Hochul is a step in the right direction, but the D.C. Court of Appeals ruling shows there’s a long road ahead to protect energy security.

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