Powering the data center boom with natural gas does not have to limit progress on lowering emissions, according to a new study published in Energy & Fuels. The study by Rice University finds the United States already has one of the key ingredients to expand reliable power while being environmentally responsible: abundant geologic storage capacity that allows natural gas-fired generation paired with carbon capture to meet growing data center demand while capturing most associated CO₂ emissions.

As data center development increases across the country, some communities have raised concerns about ensuring reliable electricity growth continues alongside emissions reductions. The study confirms that the capacity to store those emissions already exists, and it sits where data centers are being built.

Natural Gas and Carbon Capture are Key to Meeting Data Center Demand

According to the study, 34 states hold enough carbon storage capacity in saline aquifers to take more than 100 years of projected data center CO2 emissions, beyond 2030. That capacity means that new demand can run on reliable sources like natural gas while CO2 goes underground instead of into the atmosphere.

Saline aquifers are deep underground rock formations containing saltwater unsuitable for drinking or agriculture. For decades, scientists have identified these formations as ideal locations for safely storing captured carbon dioxide thousands of feet below the surface.

The study modeled data center power demand in the United States, finding that capacity could grow more than fourfold, from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts in 2030.

Data centers require reliable, around-the-clock baseload power, without the intermittency that renewables bring. The authors conclude that natural gas combined cycle plants equipped with carbon capture offer one of the most practical near-term solutions to serve digital infrastructure. Gas is abundant in the United States, it emits less CO2 than other fossil fuels, and the biggest data center growth areas sit near the aquifers that can store the CO2 collected.

Energy in Depth has previously detailed how natural gas brings additional capacity onto the grid faster than the alternatives.

Similarly, Energy in Depth has analyzed how carbon capture is rapidly expanding across in the United States, cutting greenhouse gas emissions and driving economic growth.

The study found that this capacity will continue to grow in the future. Under current conditions, U.S. saline aquifers can sequester 59 Mt, or 66 percent, of data center-emitted CO2 per year. By 2030, nearly 300 Mt of CO2 could be stored. These numbers describe geologic potential, showing how much room the subsurface gives reliable natural gas to power data centers while emissions keep falling.

The Right Geology in the Right Places

Perhaps most importantly, the study finds that the country’s greatest data center growth overlaps with many of its strongest carbon storage resources. 38 states hold usable saline aquifer capacity, and 34 of them have enough capacity for more than 100 years of carbon sequestration beyond 2030.

CO2 storage capacity potential overlaps heavily with data center growth. The authors identify Texas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Illinois as the states where data center power demand will climb fastest, with Texas alone needing roughly 25 gigawatts of new capacity by 2030. Nearly all of these fast-growing data center markets are located above substantial geologic storage resources, creating an opportunity to deploy carbon capture close to where new power generation will be needed.

Source: The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in Decarbonizing U.S. Data Centers

The study finds that CCS can mitigate over 90 percent of data center-related CO2 emissions nationwide. However, more CO2 pipelines are needed to connect CO2 sequestration to permanent storage sites and fully realize this opportunity.

The study’s co-author Hon Chung Lau is optimistic about this opportunity, saying:

“This does not mean carbon capture is the only solution. But it does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest.”

The study also maps where that growth opportunity sits, as Lau explained:

“The AI economy will require enormous amounts of energy. Our study helps identify where that demand is growing, where emissions are likely to rise and where carbon storage could help.”

Notably, the study only considers data centers with publicly announced power requirements, so the potential to deploy further CCS could be even bigger.

Bottom Line: The AI economy will require enormous amounts of reliable electricity. Rather than forcing a choice between energy security and emissions reductions, this study shows the United States has the resources to achieve both. Abundant natural gas, extensive geologic storage, and expanding carbon capture technologies position the country to power the next generation of digital infrastructure while continuing to reduce emissions.